Nigeria’s total debt is expected to rise to N130 trillion by December 2024, up from N121.67 trillion recorded in the first quarter of the year, according to a recent report by Afrinvest.
The report, titled *Bank Recapitalisation, Catalyst for a $1tn Economy*, highlights growing concerns over the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio.
The increase in debt from N97.34 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023 to N121.67 trillion in Q1 2024 represents a 24.99 percent rise over the year.
Afrinvest forecasts that by the end of 2024, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit, total public debt, debt-to-GDP ratio, and debt-servicing-to-revenue ratio will surpass N13 trillion, N130 trillion, 55 percent, and 60 percent, respectively.
The report attributes the anticipated debt increase to what it describes as overly optimistic revenue projections in the 2024 budget, which may lead to underperformance.
It notes that the expectation of 43.9 percent revenue from oil and other minerals is unrealistic.
Additionally, the report highlights a significant rise in the Federal Government’s share of the total public debt, which increased by 44.6 percent year-on-year to N487.3 trillion, accounting for 89.7 percent of the total public debt by year-end.
Recently, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved the 2024 budget of N28.7 trillion, with an estimated revenue of N18.32 trillion and a deficit of N9.18 trillion.
The Senate also approved an $800 million loan request from the World Bank, following the earlier approval of a $2.25 billion loan request in June 2024.
